Off-Track Betting: How to Pick a Winning Horse
- 1 Tips on Picking Winners in Horse Racing
- 2 Odds Factors
- 3 Conclusion
4rabet is a relatively new bookmaker in the industry, offering a decent range of horse racing markets. Players will admit that horse racing is among the sports with many variables and picking a winner can be rather challenging. Most racegoers pick horses with the most stylish names and colourful jockey silks. However, there are credible strategies that could enable you to make informed decisions while betting.
Although it is impossible to tell that a certain horse will win, these strategies point to a strong probability of winning. In this article, we have made it clear on how to spot a winning horse on races you wish to bet. A proper analysis helps you to make genuinely informed decisions about the chances of winning for each horse at 4rabet.
Tips on Picking Winners in Horse Racing
Here are essential tips that will help you become more successful in picking winners.
Find the Value Bet
It is crucial to check out which horse has higher-paying odds compared to your analysis of their chances of winning. Remember, you are looking for the best value of your money and betting on a price you do not like is terrible. Therefore, in case you feel that a horse will win the next race at 4rabet but the bookmaker is offering low odds, you can wait for a better value betting chance. If you are patient enough, you may find yourself winning higher amounts. Horse race betting is all about waiting for a perfect time to strike.
Starts & Layoff
When picking a horse, consider the following factors:
The number of starts that the horse has had in the past two years
Horses that have had less than 15 starts in the past two years are likely to win compared to the over-raced ones. Most players think that horses can withstand multiple starts, which is true. However, the highest possibility of winning goes to lightly-raced horses.
How long the horse has been off
Generally, horses with 1-2 months layoffs are likely to perform better, while those with more than six months of inactivity do not usually perform well. A horse that has been off for more than three months may need some races to get into its peak shape. In simple terms, a horse that has been off for long needs time to regain form, while the one that races too often may be exhausted. These two scenarios rarely offer a winning horse.
Whether the horse has been beaten in the last few favourite starts
Consider picking horses that have been recently beaten favourites. This is because they often come back focused and perform well in the next races.
The perfect way of maximising your potential winnings is by comparing odds on your selections before backing them. The odds will vary with different horses. Getting even slightly higher odds can make a massive difference over time. Here are other odds factors to consider.
Morning line odds
Horses with lower morning line odds are likely to win compared to those with the higher ones. Interestingly, most higher-priced may go off as overlays. It means they go off at higher morning line odds than posted.
If the horse has won at high odds in the last events
A horse that wins at high odds is likely to win repeatedly at high odds. As such, consider picking horses that have won previously at a high price.
Jockey / Trainer
One essential factor to keep in mind is how good a jockey is at judging a race. Having a more experienced jockey on board automatically improves the horse’s chances of winning. It could be challenging to know how good a jockey is without individually knowing each one of them. However, it will be of no harm following those that have recently shown good performance.
In case jockeys have several possible mounts and they choose a specific runner, they think the horse has high chances of winning, consider picking this runner. Additionally, check out for horses that made their first start with that runner and lost. If a jockey lost in the last race, chances are that he will try harder to win the second start.
It is worth examining the trainers before placing your bet. Trainers who win will keep winning while losers continue to lose. Look out for trainers with a substantial win percentage. Besides, trainers with multiple horses imply that they are looking forward to winning. Lastly, a horse that changes trainers after a claim or private sale is likely to win immediately with the new one.
Class and Form
Another good way to pick a winning horse is by checking out its class and form. Horses that move up in class after a good move or win are good choices. Avoid picking horses that are dropping in class as chances of winning are lower. In addition, you should consider those that are moving from stakes or allowance to claiming.
When it comes to form, it is advisable to pick horses that run well on large fields. Even if they finish third or fourth, it is a sign of strength as they can soon round off to form. Horses that have recently won are likely to continue winning since they stay in good shape for long. To keep winning, look for a horse that has recently won.
Looking for the lifetime winning percentage could also help you make an informed decision. Horses with more than 20% lifetime win show the potential of winning. One negative sign is when a horse comes off a higher Beyer in its previous start. There could be potential bounces in their next time out. It means they are unlikely to repeat a high Beyer in their next start. Usually, horses peak and then decline, representing a top in their recent form.
The distance record of a horse is essential for the same reasons described above. Most horses have a favourite distance or a variety of distances where their performance is best. Try to look out for events when a horse has a particularly good or poor record over a distance close to the race on which you are looking forward to betting.
On the topic of distance, you should also pay careful attention to horses that step up or down in the distance. It sometimes occurs for a reason. For instance, if a horse has a decent record of finishing strongly in previous races which are shorter, its trainer can step it up as he assumes it will do better over longer distances.
How experts rank each horse is an excellent determinant of their performance. In their betting decision, some individuals would also choose to only use this element. A higher number is equivalent to a greater ranking. It is hugely significant! You may want to know if you are wagering on a race with handicaps. In an attempt to level the playing field, several races implement handicaps. This is achieved by weighting down highly-ranked horses.
Do you believe that weight is an important instrument for regulating a horse’s performance? Is it possible that a horse adding up 10 pounds is less likely to win today than it was the last time out? Among the significant racing conundrums is the weight. An additional few pounds on top of a 120-pound thoroughbred influence a horse’s performance. Do not ignore doing your research here. How much weight a horse carries has a dramatic impact on the outcome of the race. Although weight is a symbol of a healthy horse, it also makes it harder to win by carrying too much.
Weight is used to handicap the chances of a horse to win. In potential races, the more weight a horse bears the less competitive it is in future races. Winning horses are expected to bear less weight and should therefore be able to perform on a level playing field. In case a horse loses 5 pounds or more since its last start, that is appealing. Consider it a negative if it picks up 5 pounds and above. It is desirable to check out extremely light horses, usually 114 pounds and below. Jenny Pitman says, “If you want to understand the effect of weight on a horse, try running for a bus with nothing in your hands. Then try doing it with your hands full of shopping. Then think about doing that for four and a half miles.”
Overall, the best way for selecting a winning horse at 4rabet is down to the individual. Although horse racing is unpredictable, considering the above factors could improve your chances of winning. Most players have different ways of analysing, while others rely solely on intuition to determine which horse they will back. However, following our horse racing tips and researching as many variables as possible before placing your bets is the best way to pick a winning horse. Keep in mind that off-track betting is still gambling, meaning there is no guarantee of winning. Make informed decisions and have fun at 4rabet!